Friday, September 24, 2010

Mitesh Thacker's top picks for trade today

Technical analyst Mitesh Thacker is bullish on the prospects of Moser Baer, JSW Holding and Bombay Rayon. He advises traders to buy into these stocks. He is bearish on Patni Computers and UCO Bank.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18’s Udayan Mukherjee and Sonia Shenoy, Thacker also spoke about his reading of the market and the road ahead.Here are the key levels to watch out:
On UCO Bank
This stock has been moving up very nicely for the last few weeks and now we are seeing some of that momentum deteriorating. Very clearly the upmove is loosing strength. I think some correction would likely take it back to its short-term averages which are at Rs 110, which is the price target. We are recommending this with a stop loss of around Rs 118.5.
On Patni Computers
It is a sell. This stock has already broken below short-term averages and we are seeing some kind of pressure on prices. We are seeing indicators also decline in the negative territory. The stock could head towards levels of around Rs 418 over the next few days and the stop loss would be at Rs 453.50 for any kind of short positions.
On Moser Baer
There has been a very strong breakout. The immediate target which the stock price could head towards would be around Rs 77 and the stop loss here would be Rs 68.
On JSW Holdings
If one looks at the price history for the stock, it has been moving in some kind of a sideways consolidation. It is a very contracting channel. For the last few days, we have seen the stock come back into some kind of action. We saw very strong price action on Tuesday and then we saw some kind of consolidation happening yesterday.
This could possibly pick up steam over the next few days. You could easily see the stock head towards levels of around Rs 1,960-1,970, that is the price target for somebody taking short term position and the stop loss would be just below Rs 1,820.
On BRFL
The stock price has been consolidating for the last few days. We have seen strong support emerging at levels around Rs 255-256, so below that could be a good stop loss level. At least a test of recent highs of around Rs 271-274 looks very likely. That could be a good short-term target.
Below is a verbatim transcript. Also watch the accompanying videos.
Q: Do you see the Nifty retracing somewhat in the next few sessions or do you think it might just be a sideways phase?
A: I do see some kind of a breather over here. I think there are a couple of reasons for that. We have seen lot of weakness emerge on the intraday chart. If you see the hourly, two hourly charts we have seen that they have given some kind of break downs which typically means that the price momentum has been snapped.
As far as correction is concerned it may not be a very deep correction because the daily and weekly setup still remains extremely positive. Probably the levels I would watch for would be around 5,950. If that gets broken, you could see some kind of profit-booking emerge and the index could go down to as low as 5,880-5,890 would be my bet.
The correction would be limited in nature but at least what can happen in the next few days is that the strong upmove which is there will pause around 6,050 and you would see strong supply emerge. It could be more kind of consolidating moment which could happen over the next few days.
Q: A few of the infrastructure names went up yesterday. Names like Punj Lloyd, Maytas, anything that caught your eye in that pack?
A: In fact we had some kind of buy call on Punj Lloyd, and we were expecting the stock price would probably head towards levels of Rs 125, it has already crossed that and that is the level where the 89 day average was positioned. Technically it still remains very strong. Upsides could take it forward to a further high which can go as high as Rs 134-135 in the short-term.
What we have seen in Punj Lloyd is that we have seen a downtrend and now we are seeing some kind of a reversal or technical correction. So this entire correction could probably retrace the decline by around 52-60% and the targets would be in the range of Rs 134-135.
Maytas Infra has been slightly off-track. You have seen the stock broadly fail to get past levels of around Rs 220-230 in a convincing manner on a weekly closing basis. So I would probably wait for the weekend and then take a call.
Q: How are Tech Mahindra and Mahindra Satyam technically looking to you?
A: Both of them have been doing very well. In the last few days we have seen good momentum. In fact we had some kind of short-term buy call on Tech Mahindra which got booked yesterday. But Mahindra Satyam still has lot of steam left. I was looking at the first target of around Rs 118-120 which has been some kind of supply area because over the last few months if you look back the price history, I think Rs 120-125 has been an area which this stock price has failed to cross.
Probably this upmove which looks very strong may take a breather around the Rs 120 mark. My belief is that eventually that level might be broken and you would see higher levels of around Rs 135-140 being tested easily, probably even higher.
Q: How is Hotel Leela’s chart looking?
A: It has been looking very positive. We saw a very strong breakout when the stock price managed to get past levels of Rs 53 because it kind of consolidated for about a year in the range of Rs 45-44 on the lower side and Rs 53 on the higher side. Then we saw a good burst of momentum. The stock was in action for a few days and then for the past few days there was some kind of pause or a breather which the stock price took.
I think yesterday again it is clearly showing that it is now ready to resume that upward momentum which the stock price was enjoying. I think it should head towards Rs 62-64 very comfortably over the next few days.
Q: Would you initiate any kind of longs at around 5,959-5,960 or do you think that doesn’t make sense?
A: I don’t think so. I would wait it out, and my belief is that we are seeing some kind of good sell readings on intraday charts. After holding out for a day or two, we might see some kind of more correction. Broadly it might be in the next few days around eight-10 days of consolidation, so you might see 5,950 hold out for a couple of days and then one-two day kind of dip to 5,880.
It would be a good idea to trade some kind of options spreads, in this kind of scenario wherein you are not seeing a bigger movement but probably more of a range bound movement.
Q: How do sugar stocks look for you for a short-term trade? Bajaj Hindusthan is up almost 2% now?
A: We have been positive on this entire sugar pack for sometime now. I think Shree Renuka has already met the first target. Bajaj is now comfortably trading above the supply areas of Rs 128-130 and it should head higher probably to levels of Rs 144-145. We have liked Balrampur Chini for some time now Rs 97-98 could be tested though the stock has been lacking for the some few days. I still think this pack could be a good trading bet.

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