The Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group stocks are in focus today with three group companies Reliance Power, Reliance Capital and Reliance Communications all holding their AGMs. While massive fundraising is planned for Reliance Power, Ambani said reliance communications has concluded the phase of massive investment. He added that increasing cash flows, and possible minority stake sales would help the company deleverage its balance sheet.
On Reliance Capital, Ambani said, "Reliance Life was the first Indian insurance company to announce its plan for a potential listing in 2009. The insurance regulators IRDA is currently at an advanced stage of finalizing the guidelines for the listing of life insurance companies. Reliance Capital will leverage this unmatched domain expertise of our group to offer customized financing solutions to vendors, suppliers and contractors with a targeted return on equity of up to 20%. We aim to create in a phased manner an asset based of over Rs 50,000 crore in the next 3-5 years."In an interview with CNBC-TV18's Executive Editor Shereen Bhan, SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com gave more perspective on ADAG's mega ambitions.
Below is a verbatim transcript. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: It’s been a marathon session for Anil Ambani but he is used to marathons but let me pick up on individual companies and the plans that they have outlined. Let’s start with Reliance Power because that is AGM number one. The largest fund raising plan in the history of corporate India, Rs 50,000 crore of course they haven’t outlined how they are going to go about this fund raising plan and over what period of time they hope to add about 7000 megawatts every year. What do you make of what he had to say as far as Reliance Power is concerned?
A: I don’t take these announcements too seriously because if you go by the announcement it says that by 2015 they aim to their capacity to 25000 megawatt. If you look at the RHP, when the company went public 30 months back, they had crystallized a plan for 7000 megawatt, which means they are talking of an additional 18000 megawatt.
If I take Rs 4.5 crore as the cost for each megawatt, apart from that the feedstock ownership which they intend to acquire for coal and all sorts of things, this 18000 is estimated to cost about Rs 100,000 crore.
I don’t know on what basis he is referring to Rs 50,000 crore because the debt to equity ratio is 70:30. So if I take Rs 100,000 crore as investment for the additional 18,000 megawatt that means Rs 70,000 crore debt and Rs 30,000 crore equity.
If you go by the present market cap of Rs 35,000 crore or maybe Rs 39,000 crore for R Power, I don’t know what kind of dilution we are talking about because since it went public, since it has seemed like an over capitalized company because the kind of equity they have issued to the promoter of Rs 2,000 crore at par has been giving them a lot of pain.
If you look at the networth of the company as of today of about Rs 14,000 crore, of that Rs 11,000 crore-Rs 11,500 has been contributed by the public, and Rs 1,000 crore-Rs 1,500 crore by cash flows or by profit having earned by the company in the last three years.
So honestly you are talking of capacity addition on one hand. But on the other hand there is no financial plan or the financial closure or the financial structuring of the same given. I don’t think these targets are realistic. When you talk of capacity addition or power generation capacity of about 1000 megawatt with Reliance Power that too having acquired 450 megawatt from Reliance Infra in the past, these kind of capacity additions with the time targets can't really be taken as realistic.
Q: You don’t think that the outlines has been particularly realistic that’s your take as afar as Reliance Power is concerned. Lets move to AGM number two and that was Reliance Capital. A bonus issue which of course details have not been announced. The share holders will have to wait another year but then also talking about a Reliance Bank, also talking about a possible IPO as far as the insurance business is concerned. Of course off-repeated things, what did you make of Reliance Capitals plans?
A: In Reliance Capital you have values in the form of the general insurance, life insurance, prospects of going into bank, managing the largest mutual fund and then having NBFC. But the problem when you talk to the shareholder is they say that we have not seen any increase in the valuations of the share or the market capitalization of the company in the last six months in spite of value accretion having seen in all other NBFCs.
To give an example Reliance Capital has a market cap of Rs 20,000 crore but Vis-Ã -vis Bajaj Finserv and Bajaj Holding, they have a market cap of Rs 18000 crore. Shriram Transport Finance is an NBFC and has a market cap of Rs 18000 crore, SKS Micro Finance a company which recently went public has a market cap of Rs 10,000 crore.
So when you are sitting on all these hidden assets which can get unlocked over period of time, may be in next couple of years, looking to the plans and all that. I don’t think that the investors are really happy so may be some carrots has to be given, that okay may be in the next year when we will be having the Silver Jubilee the bonus share will be given by the company.
It has always been very unfortunate that the management seems to have been running more towards increasing the market capitalization by someway or the other without having the backup fundamentals supporting for that kind of valuation.
So definitely Reliance Capital looks undervalued with a market cap of Rs 20000 crore but ultimately that’s not rewarding the shareholders.
Q: Let's talk about the third AGM and that’s Reliance communication with a debt of nearly Rs 33000 crore sitting on Reliance Communications book. Anil Ambani assuring investors that Reliance Communications will be a debt free company over the next three years. They are talking about unlocking value in the tower arm, of course they have been talking about a strategic sale in Reliance communication itself?
A: On the company becoming debt free in the next three years I won’t give much credence. In fact if you see the statement given by Anil Ambani in the AGM, he has said that the company has made an investment of Rs 60,000 crore in the last five years.
If you look at the enterprise value of the company as of today, they have a market cap of Rs 35,000 crore, debt of Rs 33,000 crore. That adds to Rs 68,000 crore. If the company has made an investment of Rs 60,000 crore in the last five years, does it mean that the company has a valuation of just Rs 8000 crore, having infrastructures created prior to that.
On the tower sale or the 26% stake sale that news has been there in the public domain for last two to three months. No progress has been made on that front. In fact the deal having in principally concluded with GTL Infra also failed. May be people are talking that they may fetch a better valuation but ultimately the deal needs to get concluded. They must get the deal consummated and only then will you ultimately have some hope of the company heading towards becoming debt free. That's a sword hanging on the company of Rs 33,000 crore debt.
It’s very unfortunate if you compare it with Idea Cellular which has a market cap of Rs 25,000 crore this company is enjoying market cap of Rs 35000 crore. So maybe the problem lies in this company as well that why they are not able to have all these plans implemented which they have been talking for quite some time.
Q: So what’s the call then on the three stocks?
A: Of the three I find value in Reliance Capital. But unless and until you have the plans implemented for Reliance Power I don’t see any value. In Reliance Communication if they implement the plans then probably there is some hope.